How do Premier League favourites do?

Manchester City are favourites to win the Premier League whilst Sheffield United, Norwich City and Burnley are favourites to be relegated – but does that point towards them happening?

OddsMonkey has looked back through the last decade of the Premier League, looking at the favourites for the title, the top-four and relegation.

And it shows the Bookmakers are not a great indicator when it comes to it…

Looking back at the last ten favourites for the Premier League – the favourites have only won five times, just 50% accuracy. The favourites to have won the Premier League are Manchester City twice in 2018 and 2019, Chelsea twice in 2010 and 2015, and Manchester United in 2011.

The top-four, and Bookmakers have somewhat more success – of the 40 favourites for top-four in the last decade they got 32 right, and in three of the seasons – including last year – they have got all four right.

But with the relegation candidates, they have never got all three right in the last decade – of the 30 their hit rate is just over a third with 11 right – so that is not great, although last year they picked two of the three with Huddersfield and Cardiff both going down.

Premier League favourites
Champions Top-Four Relegation
2019/20 Manchester City Manchester City, Liverpool, Chelsea, Tottenham Hotspur Sheffield United, Norwich City, Burnley
2018/19 MANCHESTER CITY MANCHESTER CITY, LIVERPOOL CHELSEA, TOTTENHAM HOTSPUR HUDDERSFIELD TOWN, Bournemouth, CARDIFF CITY
2017/18 MANCHESTER CITY MANCHESTER CITY, CHELSEA, Manchester United, TOTTENHAM HOTSPUR Huddersfeld Town, Watford, Burnley
2016/17 Manchester City MANCHESTER CITY, CHELSEA, Arsenal, Manchester United West Bromwich Albion, Burnley, HULL CITY
2015/16 Chelsea Chelsea, MANCHESTER CITY, ARSENAL, Manchester United Bournemouth, West Bromwich Albion, NORWICH CITY
2014/15 CHELSEA CHELSEA, MANCHESTER CITY, ARSENAL, MANCHESTER UNITED BURNLEY, QPR, Crystal Palace
2013/14 Manchester United MANCHESTER CITY, CHELSEA, ARSENAL, Manchester United Crystal Palace, Hull City, CARDIFF CITY
2012/13 Manchester City CHELSEA, MANCHESTER CITY, ARSENAL, MANCHESTER UNITED Wigan Athletic, READING, Queens Park Rangers
2011/12 Manchester United Chelsea, MANCHESTER CITY, ARSENAL, MANCHESTER UNITED Norwich City, Swansea City, Queens Park Rangers
2010/11 MANCHESTER UNITED CHELSEA, MANCHESTER CITY, ARSENAL, MANCHESTER UNITED BLACKPOOL, West Bromwich Albion, Wigan Athletic
2009/10 CHELSEA CHELSEA, MANCHESTER UNITED, ARSENAL, Liverpool BURNLEY, HULL CITY, Birmingham City
Capped up were correct

OddsMonkey spokesman Peter Watton commented: “We were shocked looking back that the odds were not a bid more accurate in terms of picks, especially for the title winners – only a 50% strike rate.

“But for the fifth year in succession the Bookmakers are sticking with City to take the title.

“And the relegation odds, tells us that there is some real value in that market and gives real hope to those teams who have been labelled as favourites for the drop.

“However, the four favourites for top-four can see it as a good omen, as the Bookmakers have a very good strike rate when it comes to that and last year successfully picked them all.”

Selected Premier League odds 2019
Manchester City – 4/9
Liverpool – 11/4
Tottenham Hotspur – 16/1
Chelsea – 33/1
Manchester United – 33/1
Arsenal – 40/1
Everton – 200/1
Leicester City – 200/1
Wolverhampton Wanderers – 200/1
West Ham United – 500/1
Newcastle United – 750/1
Watford – 1000/1
Crystal Palace – 1000/1
Aston Villa – 1000/1
AFC Bournemouth – 1000/1
Southampton – 1000/1
Brighton & Hove Albion – 1000/1
Burnley – 1500/1
Norwich City – 1500/1
Sheffield United – 1500/1

*Odds correct at time of writing